This blog has moved - please update your feed!

This blog has moved to MediaFuturist.com - Update your Feeds!

For some reason there are still several 100 subscribers to this blog so here is a reminder: I have moved everything to my new address, MediaFuturist.com, and I will be blogging at that URL only. Please make a note of it and junk this old feed.

Important: if you are reading my blog using an RSS reader please be sure to add my new feed URL to your reader - otherwise you will be left out of the loop, going forward (bummer;) The new feed reader link is here

September 28, 2008

free creates value (elsewhere)

Fantastic summary and illustration

September 07, 2008

Beer is now cheaper than gas


Beer is cheaper than gas
Originally uploaded by frotzed2

June 04, 2008

If you are still getting this, you need to change your feed subscription!

Gerd_leonhard_end_of_control_shirt I noticed there are still a lot of people subscribed to this blog's feed. Please note that this blog is INACTIVE; my new blog location is at www.mediafuturist.com.  Please be sure to use this feed in your readers and get rid of the old feed.  Thanks!!!   Gerd Leonhard

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September 04, 2007

Important note: my blog is moving to MediaFuturist.com - Update your Feeds!

I have finally relented to people's requests for finding an easier URL for my blog - after all, GerdLeonhard.net is kinda hard to remember unless you are German I guess, so I have now moved all of my 1050+ blog posts etc to my new address, MediaFuturist.com, and I will be blogging at that URL from now on. Please make a note of it.

Important: if you are reading my blog using an RSS reader please be sure to add my new feed URL to your reader - otherwise you will be left out of the loop, going forward (bummer;) The new feed reader link is here

Please let me know if this is giving you any trouble.
Thanks - Gerd Leonhard

September 03, 2007

Good read: 'Off the record' (Robert Sandall | Prospect Magazine August 2007: In recent years, the economics of pop music have been upended

This is a great read if you want to know what's coming (and not only because I am quoted in it ;): 'Off the record' by Robert Sandall | Prospect Magazine August 2007

My favorite nuggets (quoted here cause I could not have said it better myself):

"Record sales as we know them are in long-term decline," says music business analyst Keith Jopling. "Whereas the wider music market—live, merchandising, streaming video and music social networking—is in rude health. After seven years of gradual change, we are about to see a major shift. Record companies are, at last, in a hurry to transform themselves into proper consumer marketing companies."

My comment: reminds me a lot of what Don Tapscott is saying in his book "Wikinomics": In 2006 the successful companies launched open access platforms while the losers were building walled gardens.  How true.

"...although Britons still buy more CDs per head than anyone else—2.7 in 2006—the market for recorded music is in rapid decline. In the first quarter of 2007, the market for the top-selling 200 CDs in Britain shrank by 20 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. In the US, CD sales in 2007 are down by 15 per cent, in France 25 per cent, in Canada 35 per cent. The German market, once the largest in Europe, is now no bigger than that of the Netherlands..."

My comment: Boy, is it URGENT to sell access not copies. Even a blind person can start to see this now. License ACCESS. Share revenues. Read Muserati!

Picture_3 "...Rather like the "Home Taping is Killing Music" campaign mounted by record companies in the 1980s, the arrival of illegal file-sharing coincided with an increase in legitimate sales of recorded music in the three largest markets: America, Japan and Britain. This supported the file-sharers' defence that their activities were no more harmful to music sales than the arrival of free radio airplay in the 1930s..."

"A rediscovery, or a renewed appreciation, of the communal source of music-making—and listening— must lie near the root of this upending of the music business. As personal stereos and MP3 players have grown in popularity, so has an appreciation that music isn't just something that goes on between your ears. The guitarist of the American hardcore band Anthrax expressed this rather neatly: "Our album is the menu," he explained. "The concert is the meal."

My comment: nice bottom line. I should start using that. Menus are free, meals are not.

September 01, 2007

paidContent.org: Amazon.com’s Music Service Coming Next Month (all MP3s!)

Link: paidContent.org - The Economics of Content - Amazon.com’s Music Service Coming Next Month?.

Amazon.com’s Music Service Coming Next Month?

Rafat has good blip on Amazon's new service - all based on MP3s of course. Will be interesting to see what happens with EMusic then.

"Is the world ready for it? Amazon.com’s (NSDQ: AMZN) ready to launch its world-changing music service next month, the 500th such service claiming to, well, change the world. Earlier reports pegged the launch in May this year, but that came and passed. Now NYP reports a mid-Sept launch date is planned, and will offer songs in MP3, DRM-free format. Included will be music from Universal Music Group, EMI and a large number of independent labels (all thee have started selling MP3 formats songs)...missing will be two notable sources, Sony BMG and Warner Music Group, both holdouts on DRM-free songs..."

August 30, 2007

On-demand Streaming of Music on Social Networks and Blogs: this is the Next Radio!

Partly because of my general work as a Futurist, and partly because of my role as Co-Founder and CEO of MusicAPI provider Sonific I have been very busy analyzing social networks, blogs, and other self-publishing platforms, and their importance to the music (and media) business. I will be publishing the results as part of my new book (The End of Control), soon, but my summarized conclusion is that this is the birth of the next Iteration of Radio that we are witnessing here.  If you recall, Radio was first based on 'pirated' un-licensed content, too, unwanted and hated by the record labels and music publishers, since they considered it to replacing solid revenue streams (performances and sheet music, mostly) that they were counting on and did not want threatened (much like CD and download sales, today!). 

But then, 100s of stations were launched, Radio became something that everyone loved and used (yes... because it 'feels like free' ) and they all used whatever music that wanted without a definitive license (if any), and guess what: after ten years of just standing by and not giving their blessings the music companies  finally had to agree that Radio was, indeed, driving sales of music and that it should therefore be allowed to exist. The irony, of course, was that the labels did not even manage to get ANY revenue share from the radio operators; only the publishers did (in the US that is).  Would they have gotten substantially more if they had agreed on a revenue share right from the start; before those radio networks became the driving force behind music sales?  You bet!

So here is my urgent appeal to the record labels:
license the social networks with a blanket,  full-length-track (streaming) revenue-share-based license NOW, and get your foot in the door before it jams up, and before they can successfully argue that you need them more than they need you. Mark my words: streaming music on-demand, fully interactive, fully-shared-enabled, full-length-tracks, will become a default setting on the social networks, regardless of the record industry's 'permission-denied' tendencies. And we are already talking over 220 Million people, 700+ sites and services, growing something like 250% every year. Billions of $$ in revenue shares from ads, upselling, bundles...  And we certainly wouldn't mind if you tried this with Sonific, first, either :)



August 28, 2007

The Jeff Pulver Blog: How Asynchronous Communications became the new Synchronous:

Link: The Jeff Pulver Blog: How Asynchronous Communications became the new Synchronous:.

Jeff always has some good nuggets.Like this:

"While I still rely on telephones and email to stay connected with some people, the summer of 2007 has taught me other ways to create a parallel communication experience..."

My comment: same thing is happening to me right now... based on Facebook.

Jeff: "As real-time social media continues to evolve, I will know where my friends are, what they're facing, if and when they need help, when they have discovered something interesting and many other things they care to share at any moment. The people in my social media communications circle represent a group of people I feel much closer to than some other people whom I’ve known for a long time but never really have gotten to know. Sort of the difference between a well developed character in a novel as compared to someone whose character never gets really developed.  Overall, I believe what is in front of us is a very valuable communications tool with some incredibly useful modes. Modes which will become more evident over time. And modes which will eventually be commercialized by many people. Turns out, what appears to be “fun and frivol” to some people, can be the next big thing for someone else. It all depends upon your Peripheral Vision. :-)"

My comment: totally agree. In a way, the same is happening in media - killer apps for some, horrors for others. I don't twitter but 1000s of others may love it (and apparently do) but I don't watch MTV either. The world is becoming more diverse and more eclectic every day now.  For media, the big question is no longer how to maintain control (i.e. some sort of scarcity) but how to monetize un-control (i.e. ubiquity).  omg... I can feel another book idea rising (btw - my next book, The End of Control, is coming very soon - announcement coming up!!).

August 27, 2007

Print and Digital Need Not Compete - eMarketer Reports

Interesting article on emarketer - whether this holds true for digital music I am not sure.

Link: Print and Digital Need Not Compete - eMarketer.

"There should be no distinction between online and offline," he said. "There is no conceptual reason these days why marketers wouldn't consider using multiple media with campaigns."

A real cherry for record labels is this graph, for sure (types of advertising that causes people to go to websites):  Search Engines and Recommendation lead the way.  Think about that for a minute. And then think widgets. Syndication. Social Networking.

Picture_5

August 25, 2007

Finding DRM-Free Music Online (techcrunch list)

Nice summary by Techcrunch.  There are a LOT more sites that offer MP3s but this is a good start - I will post a few comments on this shortly.

Link: Finding DRM-Free Music Online.

Picture_2_2

August 24, 2007

Welcome to my Blog - these are my most popular posts on The Future of Music, Media & Entertainment

I was just informed that Typepad / SixApart is going to list my humble pontifications as 'Featured Blog' starting next Wednesday August 29, so if you are one of those first-time visitors, WELCOME TO THE FUTURE OF MUSIC & MEDIA, and here (below) are the most important blog posts from the past 2.5 years - you may want to read these first (but there are 1000+ to pick from...:)

Open letter to the independent music industry
Music Like Water - the inevitable music ecosystem
The impact of Social Networks on the Music Industry
Drop DRM or become irrelevant
My 2007 predictions (wow... some of them are actually coming true right now!)
Music Syndication - embrace the Inevitable!
All Media is going PULL
Users converging with creators: the rise of the Usators, the advent of distributed selection, and the attention economy’s impact on music & media commerce.

And here are some other things to check out, about me or from me (albeit not on this blog)
UnlockTheMusic Video (noDRM)
My YouTube Videos
30+ presentations I published in the past 2 years (pdfs), on the Future of Music, Radio, TV etc
My MediaFuturist website
My book "The Future of Music"
Visit me at Facebook

Digital Music Panel at Commonwealth Club San Francisco (Gerd on DRM)

I hope you enjoy my blog!
Gerd Leonhard

Sign up for my mailing list here

PS: If you need music for your blogs and social network sites check out Sonific (my latest venture - free music widgets with over 200.000 songs!)

Gerd_leonhard_music_media_futurist

Listen to my pontifications via this Streaming Podcast Widget provided by Sonific

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This is a Flickr badge showing photos in a set called Gerd Leonhard's Future of Music Slideshow Examples. Make your own badge here.

August 23, 2007

Gerd on Fred Wilson who comments on: Rhapsody Hooks Up With MTV

An interesting view by the ubiquitous Fred Wilson.  Good stuff but see my comments below
Link: A VC: Rhapsody Hooks Up With MTV.

Fred Wilson:  I" think Rhapsody (or a service like it) is the future of music. It won't be long until we can connect to the Internet from anywhere and when we can, there will no longer be a need to have files stored locally on any device (ipod, computer, laptop, music server, etc). We'll just log into whatever music service we use, decide what we want to listen to, and the music will start playing. That's how it works in my home already"

My comment: agreed but this is precisely why we won't be able to distinguish between streaming and downloading any more.  All-pervasive wireless broadband will kill the idea of 'listening only' versus getting a copy / paying for a digital download. Access will trump ownership. Therefore, the labels must monetize ACCESS first and foremost, and only THEN the copies. Remember the roots of Rhapsody are in online radio, and imho that is what needs to be offered first: 'feels like free' on-demand streaming, based on community and advertising support, and only then move into ownership propositions.

Fred Wilson:  "...Offer a subscription plan that incorporates an eMusic style DRM free music download service. For those people who do want to continue to own music, Rhapsody should offer "sample and own' plan. For say, $20/month, you get unlimited listening plus 30 downloads a month. And Rhapsody will know what you are listening to and can recommend what those 30 downloads should be..."

My comment: yes, that would be nice, but people are just not going to pay $20 a month for digital music access - at least not at the entry level. $1 / week is more like it, and 'feels like free' is what we need to shoot for, imho. That means ad-support etc, or something like cableTV where we just accept that we are paying (and it kind of becomes automatic). I think Amazon will do this very soon and that will be a real problem for Real.  I love Rhapsody too but the labels have really screwed this up for a looooooong time.

On Fred's other points, I totally agree - I just think that, again, music needs to be more like a utility, like water, something that everyone pays for and everyone uses, but that does not create individual payment points everywhere. Based on this ubiquitous access to music, imagine all the stuff you could add value with, and upsell. Read this and watch these.

 

Continue reading "Gerd on Fred Wilson who comments on: Rhapsody Hooks Up With MTV" »

August 21, 2007

Gerd Leonhard on Broadcasting2.0, and the Future of Radio

Social Media White Paper “Tracking the Influence” (Factiva of Dow Jones)

Good read
Link: Social Media White Paper “Tracking the Influence” (Factiva of Dow Jones).

Sonific announces MusicAPI, connecting Record Labels and Artists with Social Networks

This is a major announcement for us - you saw it here first ;)

Picture_5 August 21 2007, San Francisco, California

Sonific’s MusicAPI connects Record Labels with Social Networks

Sonific LLC, a leading provider of music applications and widgets for online communities and social media platforms, today announced that it will open the first release of its Music Application Program Interface -the Sonific MusicAPI– to both record labels and music companies as well as to social media platforms and services, later this year.

Sonific’s MusicAPI will, at zero cost and simultaneously across all partner networks, allow any interested record label, music publisher or artist to ‘talk to’ and connect with 100s of social networks and online communities, and opt-in their music catalogs for the streaming use on social network sites. Ecommerce functionalities will be provided by Sonific affiliates such as iTunes, eMusic, Amazon, Wippit and many others.

Content providers (such as record labels) will share in advertising revenues, and will be able to take full advantage of using a single channel to achieve viral exposure on all key online communities and social media platforms around the world, such as Facebook, Wordpress, Myspace, Friendster, Hi5, Xanga, Orkut, Typepad, Vox.com, Livejournal, iGoogle, Google Gadgets, Netvibes, Blogger, AIM Pages and Live.com. With a single mouse click, music  companies will soon be able to connect to 100s of platforms and present their music on what has become the next iteration of Radio: Social Networks.

Picture_6 With astounding growth rates of 50% to over 400% per year, social networks are quickly becoming crucial attention generators for music companies, soon to be rivaling online portals and search engines. Social media is not only exploding in the U.S. but also reaching a truly global audience, with a high percentage of users in Europe, China and South-East Asia, South America and India. According to a recent Comscore report, Myspace’s UA (unique audience) rose to 61 Million people in July 2007, while Facebook’s was 19 Million. Blogger.com scored a unique audience of 30 Million users, Typepad.com almost 10 Million, and Wordpress.com 8.2 Million (Sonific offers widgets for all 3 platforms already).

Sonific’s research indicates that the total unique audience on all social and self-publishing networks already exceeds 220 Million people – and music is the most often requested feature, across the board. According to a recent Olswang UK study, 2 of 5 social network users (and 65% of teenagers) have embedded music into their profiles, approximately 70% do so to show off their taste and half do so to reflect their personality. Social networks also have significant impact on music buying habits: 53% of people confirmed that they actively surf social network sites to discover new music and artists.

Sonific therefore believes that a standardized and constantly maintained interface between record labels and social networks represents a major business opportunity that goes way beyond the current music widgets craze.  “The recent developments in the digital music space and the tidal changes that are finally happening among the major record labels means that we will without a doubt see every single record label (small or large) sell music in non-DRM formats by the end of this year. As predicted for some time now, the music business is getting ready to switch to an open-access policy, and this will lead to an explosion of tremendous new opportunities, with the most lucrative turf being Music on Social Networks. Any site, portal or community can now become a music retailer, without having to add costly and ubiquitously hated copy protection measures, and therefore online communities stand to become even more important, very soon. In fact, I would predict that Social Media will become as important as Radio was back in the old days of Vinyl and CDs, which is why Sonific is gearing up to become something akin to the Music Operating System for this new turf”, comments Gerd Leonhard, Co-Founder and CEO of Sonific LLC.

Gerd continues: “If music companies want to be successful in this new ecosystem they urgently need a flexible yet fast and very low cost way to funnel any or all of their music into social media networks, while receiving a solid share of the advertising revenues, in return. In addition, music-related ecommerce opportunities will explode and very powerful market-feedback data can be provided by the platforms that use the music. Sonific’s MusicAPI will soon provide a one-stop solution for all involved parties: platforms and services will be able to plug in Sonific’s MusicAPI and instantly avail themselves of licensed music catalogs as well as make use of Sonific’s technology solutions; and record labels and other music rights holders will be able to opt-in any musical work, and make it available to the entire social media landscape - all in one go. Real-time usage information and other data will be made available, and advertising revenues will be shared – Music2.0 is finally becoming a reality.”

Sonific estimates that, based on the current growth rates and the continued global trends that see cheap broad-band access proliferate everywhere, the number of social network users will triple within the next 18 months, to almost 750 Million users, creating the biggest new audience opportunity that the music industry has seen since the introduction of the CD, back in 1983.

A crucial component of Sonific’s MusicAPI will be the integration of advertising into the widgets and the API, itself, allowing the content owners to instantly participate in new revenue streams without having to individually re-invent the wheel and spend precious resources on building those tools themselves. In addition, Sonific will also make its MusicAPI available to outside developers, allowing the music widget ecosystem to unfold even faster.

Continue reading "Sonific announces MusicAPI, connecting Record Labels and Artists with Social Networks" »

MyMusic.dk Interview with Gerd Leonhard: Er Sonific fremtidens radio (in Danish)

Link: MyMusic.dk Interview: Er Sonific fremtidens radio

Interview: Er Sonific fremtidens radio... Sonific SongSpot er et nyt gratis ...j til implementering af musik ... personlige profiler. Ideen er oplagt men hvad siger Koda og de andre rettighedsorganisationer.

August 20, 2007

Web Users Now Spend Half Their Time Visiting Content, Far Outpacing Time Spent with Search, Communications and Commerce

Good stuff from the OPA.
Link: Web Users Now Spend Half Their Time Visiting Content, Far Outpacing Time Spent with Search, Communications and Commerce.

"According to the OPA's IAI, conducted by Nielsen//NetRatings, communications accounted for 46% of consumers' time online in 2003. A dramatic shift has taken place since then, with consumers now spending 47% of their time with content, compared with 34% four years ago. The 37% gain in share for content is followed closely by a 35% gain in share for search. However the total time being spent with search remains relatively low, accounting for just 5% of Internet users online time in 2007*. "The IAI has identified a very significant and sustained trend in where consumers are spending their online time," Horan said. "The index indicates that, over the last four years, the primary role of the Internet has shifted from communications to content."

Clearly it's no longer about allowing online content use, or 'not', it is about licensing it and turning it into revenue. Exciting times.


August 19, 2007

Facebook and me

First, I think the way they describe themselves is great (nice and succinct)
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Second, I have started using it more often, and can now be found here, and have been adding quite a few more contacts (but not all the 7800 from database - don't worry), and the liquidity on this network is absolutely amazing - connections and re-connections are made at blinding pace.  Not quite as 'serious' as LinkedIn (where I only add people I know really well, and in person i.e. face2face) but quite useful nevertheless.

Third, Sonific (my music widget / MusicAPI company) will shortly be launching a very cool music app for Facebook. We are very excited about this ... this will really make a splash. so... stay tuned.

Update: my Facebook badge. Yeah!

Now, the Clicking Is to Watch the Ads, Not Skip Them - New York Times (Advertising2.0)

This is a good feature that talks about what I like to call Advertising2.0

Link: Now, the Clicking Is to Watch the Ads, Not Skip Them - New York Times.

Here are some high-lights:

"The difference between “watching a commercial on a Web site and in your living room,” said Michael Jacobs, executive vice president and executive creative director at MRM Worldwide in New York, is that online is “an opt-in audience; you’re choosing to be there."

The only reason we have any chance of being successful is transparency,” Mr. Droga said — that is, “if people know they’re being sold to, you can celebrate the sell.”

“It’s all about relevance,” said Chris McCumber, senior vice president for marketing and brand strategy at USA Network. “Consumers want to be entertained on their own time, on their own terms.”

August 18, 2007

Matt McAlister - The business of network effects

Picture_2 Good read on network effects. Music marketing 2.0 ;)
Link: Matt McAlister � The business of network effects.

Music2.0 - The Book!

  • Now only Euro 19.95! To order the book,
    or download the pay-what-you-want pdf,
    visitmusic20book.com

    Music2.0: Gerd Leonhards Essays on the Future of The Music Industry

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