WSJ: a critical voice on Chris Anderson's LongTail Theory, and book (WSJ)
"By Mr. Anderson's calculation, 25% of Amazon's sales are from its tail, as they involve books you can't find at a traditional retailer. But using another analysis of those numbers -- an analysis that Mr. Anderson argues isn't meaningful -- you can show that 2.7% of Amazon's titles produce a whopping 75% of its revenues. Not quite as impressive.."
My take: the longtail idea is real, indeed, but overly emphasized in most cases, i.e. maybe it comes across a bit too idealized in Chris' book (which I love for many other reasons). In other words, for me, it's NOT a question of whether the concept is wrong or right; rather, it is a question of looking at hit businesses versus catalog / non-hit / niche businesses; now, due to the Net Economy, BOTH can make $$ - but hits within niches will also emerge which brings us back to a 'new head' within the tail, itself. Eventually, we will have 20 Million songs online, and yes, we will have HITS within all those niches, too, and maybe they will make up 80% of that niche's sales, too. Does that kill the idea - I would think not.
As mass media collides with personal media, it won't mean that mass media will cease to exist, at all. Rather, it will take a bit of a paradigm-changing beating, temporarily, but then quickly incorporate personal and social media aspects, and use them in ADDITION to what they already have (i.e. market share, trust, expertise.... - well, for the most part;). Traditional radio, for example, will not just evaporate or even diminish significantly, rather, it simply won't GROW enough on its own, which means that broadcasters will look elsewhere for growth, i.e. podcasting, digital radio, interactive / convergent radio, music commerce, community.... and that to me is the true message behind the longtail theory: it's about unlocking the 'not-hits' stuff, about going deeper, more niche, more direct, and more efficient.
Update: there is a new podcast on the longtail at my MediaFuturist site
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